Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Exclusive: AIG Was Responsible For The Banks' January & February Profitability

Zero Hedge is rarely speechless, but after receiving this email from a correlation desk trader, we simply had to hold a moment of silence for the phenomenal scam that continues unabated in the financial markets, and now has the full oversight and blessing of the U.S. government, which in turns keeps on duping U.S. taxpayers into believing everything is good.

I present the insider perspective of trader Lou (who wishes to remain anonymous) in its entirety:

"AIG-FP accumulated thousands of trades over the years, all essentially consisted of selling default protection. This was done via a number of structures with really only one criteria - rated at least AA- (if it fit these criteria all OK - as far as I could tell credit assessment was completely outsourced to the rating agencies).

Main products they took on were always levered credit risk, credit-linked notes (collateral and CDS both had to be at least AA-, no joint probability stuff) and AAA or super senior portfolio swaps. Portfolio swaps were either corporate synthetic CDO or asset backed, effectively sub-prime wraps (as per news stories regarding GS and DB).

Credit linked notes are done through single-name CDS desks and a cash desk (for the note collateral) and the portfolio swaps are done through the correlation desk. These trades were done is almost every jurisdiction - wherever AIG had an office they had IB salespeople covering them.

Correlation desks just back their risk out via the single names desks - the correlation desk manages the delta/gamma according to their correlation model. So correlation desks carry model risk but very little market risk.

I was mostly involved in the corporate synthetic CDO side.

During Jan/Feb AIG would call up and just ask for complete unwind prices from the credit desk in the relevant jurisdiction. These were not single deal unwinds as are typically more price transparent - these were whole portfolio unwinds. The size of these unwinds were enormous, the quotes I have heard were "we have never done as big or as profitable trades - ever".

As these trades are unwound, the correlation desk needs to unwind the single name risk through the single name desks - effectively the AIG-FP unwinds caused massive single name protection buying. This caused single name credit to massively underperform equities - run a chart from say last September to current of say S&P 500 and Itraxx - credit has underperformed massively. This is largely due to AIG-FP unwinds.

I can only guess/extrapolate what sort of PnL this put into the major global banks (both correlation and single names desks) during this period. Allowing for significant reserve release and trade PnL, I think for the big correlation players this could have easily been US$1-2bn per bank in this period."

For those to whom this is merely a lot of mumbo-jumbo, let me explain in layman's terms:
AIG, knowing it would need to ask for much more capital from the Treasury imminently, decided to throw in the towel, and gifted major bank counter-parties with trades which were egregiously profitable to the banks, and even more egregiously money losing to the U.S. taxpayers, who had to dump more and more cash into AIG, without having the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner disclose the real extent of this, for lack of a better word, fraudulent scam.

In simple terms think of it as an auto dealer, which knows that U.S. taxpayers will provide for an infinite amount of money to fund its ongoing sales of horrendous vehicles (think Pontiac Azteks): the company decides to sell all the cars currently in contract, to lessors at far below the amortized market value, thereby generating huge profits for these lessors, as these turn around and sell the cars at a major profit, funded exclusively by U.S. taxpayers (readers should feel free to provide more gripping allegories).

What this all means is that the statements by major banks, i.e. JPM, Citi, and BofA, regarding abnormal profitability in January and February were true, however these profits were a) one-time in nature due to wholesale unwinds of AIG portfolios, b) entirely at the expense of AIG, and thus taxpayers, c) executed with Tim Geithner's (and thus the administration's) full knowledge and intent, d) were basically a transfer of money from taxpayers to banks (in yet another form) using AIG as an intermediary.

For banks to proclaim their profitability in January and February is about as close to criminal hypocrisy as is possible. And again, the taxpayers fund this "one time profit", which causes a market rally, thus allowing the banks to promptly turn around and start selling more expensive equity (soon coming to a prospectus near you), also funded by taxpayers' money flows into the market. If the administration is truly aware of all these events (and if Zero Hedge knows about it, it is safe to say Tim Geithner also got the memo), then the potential fallout would be staggering once this information makes the light of day.

And the conspiracy thickens.

Thanks to an intrepid reader who pointed this out, a month ago ISDA published an amended close out protocol. This protocol would allow non-market close outs, i.e. CDS trade crosses that were not alligned with market bid/offers.

The purpose of the Protocol is to permit parties to agree upfront that in the event of a counterparty default, they will use Close-Out Amount valuation methodology to value trades. Close-Out Amount valuation, which was introduced in the 2002 ISDA Master Agreement, differs from the Market Quotation approach in that it allows participants more flexibility in valuation where market quotations may be difficult to obtain.
Of course ISDA made it seem that it was doing a favor to industry participants, very likely dictating under the gun.

Industry participants observed the significant benefits of the Close-Out Amount approach following the default of Lehman Brothers. In launching the Close-Out Amount Protocol, ISDA is facilitating amendment of existing 1992 ISDA Master Agreements by replacing Market Quotation and, if elected, Loss with the Close-Out Amount approach.
"This is yet another example of ISDA helping the industry to coalesce around more efficient and effective practices, while maintaining flexibility," said Robert Pickel, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, ISDA. "The Protocol permits parties to value trades in the way that is most appropriate, which greatly enhances smooth functioning of the market in testing circumstances."

And, lo and behold, on the list of adhering parties, AIG takes front and center stage (together with several other parties that probably deserve the microscope treatment).

So - in simple terms, ISDA, which is the only effective supervisor of the Over The Counter CDS market, is giving its blessing for trades to occur (cross) below where there is a realistic market bid, or higher than the offer. In traditional equity markets this is a highly illegal practice. ISDA is allowing retrospective arbitrary trades to have occurred at whatever price any two parties agree on, so long as the very vague necessary and sufficient condition of "market quotations may be difficult to obtain" is met. As anyone who follows CDS trading knows, this can be extrapolated to virtually any specific single-name, index or structured product easily. In essence ISDA gave its blessing for below the radar fund transfers of questionable legality. The curious timing of this decision and the alleged abuse of CDS transaction marks by and among AIG and the big banks, is striking to say the least.


This wholesale manipulation of markets, investors and taxpayers has gone on long enough.

US Economy

The largest and still the most important market in the world, the United States of America’s economy is driven by consumers but is troubled by high debt levels.

The United States of America (US or USA) has the world’s largest economy. According to the CIA World Factbook, 2007 GDP is believed to be $13.84 trillion. This is three times the size of the next largest economy, Japan, which has a GDP of $4.4 trillion. US dominance has been eroded however by the creation of the European Union common market, which has an equivalent GDP of over $13 trillion, and by the rapid growth of the BRIC economies, in particular China, which is forecast to overtake the US in size within 30 years.

The recent failure in the US housing and credit markets have resulted in a slowdown in the US economy. 2007 GDP growth was estimated at 2.2% but in 2008 it is projected to be just 0.9%, down from the 10-year average of 2.8%

Car Finance and Car Finance Companies

If one has set his eyes on a wonderful car but the size of his pocket restrains him to buy one, then opting for Car Finance is the best way out since they claim to be specialists in car finance, helping the customers to finance their cars in the most cost effective way.

The Car Finance Dealers help the customers in the following ways:

Provision of retail automotive financing

Provision of wholesale financing

Provison of capital loans.
Car Finance cover both old and new cars.

The car finance services rendered by the different car finance dealers or brokers can be discussed as follows: Private Purchase Plan
1. Traditional Purchase Plan: In this scheme the buyer has to start with an initial deposit which has to be 10% and above.
2. Flexible Purchase Plan: Here the buyer can postpone the payment till the expiry of the contract. In this scheme the buyer agrees for the final payment taking into account the age, mileage and the use of the car.
3. Advantage Plan: Here the buyer has the option of not making the final payment and returning the car .

Business Purchase Plan


1. Traditional Finance Plan The buyer here has to pay for the cost of the car and the interest in fixed monthly installments.
2. Flexible Purchase Plan: Similar to the private flexible purchase plan , payment of a lump sum amount is allowed at the end of the contract.
3. Advantage Plan: The buyer can choose from 24 , 30 or 36 monthly payments.

Fireside Bank

Fireside Bank is an FDIC insured and regulated California industrial bank operating throughout the United States. Our primary business includes: Certificates of Deposit (CDs) and non-prime automobile lending. All deposits are insured with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

After careful consideration, Fireside Bank has made the difficult decision to cease originating new business. Effective March 24, 2009, credit applications will no longer be accepted for review, and new deposits or additional deposits to existing accounts will no longer be accepted.

We have been honored to serve you and the auto finance industry for 58 years. We sincerely hope that you and your business will see success and prosperity even through these tough economic times. Thank you for your loyalty and support.

Fedral Deposit Insurance Corporation

*On October 3, 2008, FDIC deposit insurance increased from $100,000.00 to $250,000.00 per depositor through December 31, 2009. On May 20, 2009, the FDIC extended this coverage through December 31, 2013.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is an independent agency of the United States government. The FDIC protects you against the loss of your deposits if an FDIC-insured bank or savings association fails. FDIC insurance is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. The term “insured bank” is used in this brochure to mean any bank or savings association with FDIC insurance.

To check whether your bank or savings association is insured by FDIC, call toll-free 1-877-275-3342, use "Bank Find" at www.fdic.gov/deposit/index.html, or look for the official FDIC sign where deposits are received.

The FDIC promotes public confidence in the U.S. financial system by insuring deposits in banks and thrift institutions for at least $100,000.00*.

Coverage Over $100,000*
The FDIC provides separate insurance coverage for deposit accounts held in different categories of ownership. You may qualify for more than $100,000* in coverage at one insured bank if you own deposit accounts in different ownership categories.

Rapid Car Loans

Rapidcarloans.net is the online auto financing company that aims to get you affordable car finance for either new or used car. All our car loans program are designed considering all credit types, so it doesn't matter if you have bad credit, no credit, poor credit or bankruptcy. We have a wide range of car loans to offer that suits your requirements.

With RapidCarLoans.net, no problems can hold you back from placing your car on the road. Our widespread network of lenders would offer you low interest rates with guaranteed and instant approval wherein you can get your auto financing approved within 48 hours of application. Apply now and see how easy getting the right automobile loan can be.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Forgive All Ebay Sins!

Over the years, I have been amazed at the “blinding” greed and reckless approach to commerce that some business owners have employed. Lying to customers, selling inferior merchandise, and not offering refunds, left a firestorm of irate customers in their wake. Without fail, all of this “ill will” led most businesses to bankruptcy, and in some cases, Federal Prison.

I realize that not everyone engages in “business criminality” that rises to the level of fraud and incarceration. Most people try to be good stewards, and approach their enterprise in an honest and forthright manner. For those of you who own thriving business concerns you already know that in most cases the customer is always right. You make sure that you communicate effectively, refund monies if the buyer is truly unhappy, and try to meet the needs of the people who buy your goods or services.

However, there are more than a handful of Ebay sellers that are of the mind that customer service and effective communication is not something that they need not participate in. Take the case of a woman named Barbara, (Nickname: BobAnn) who recently posted her disappointment on the Ryze Business Network:

Quote:
Barbara Cerda wrote:
Greetings Everyone,

“When will sellers on Ebay understand that customer service is key? And when will Ebay sellers learn using customer friendly approaches can only make their business grow?” Again today I've bought from a less than friendly seller.

Thought I was placing a bid and instead bought the item at the buy now price. Of course the seller refused to allow the retraction, nor was I allowed to place a bid. I always pay for my winning bids immediately upon email confirmation.

And did so in this case. But it would have been customer friendlier for this seller to accept my retraction to be replaced with a bid. He would have gotten repeat business from me and my friends. His "Buy Now" price is 30% over the retail price for this item. Lesson learned by me again - that there are way too many sellers on Ebay out to grab a buck and the hell with fair practice. Lesson learned yet again.”

BobAnn
End quote…

The operative phrase here is “repeat business from me and my friends”. There is no better endorsement of your product or service than word of mouth advertising. Lack of flexibility on the part of the seller, not only cost them one customer, but also destroyed the possibility for future business. Good news travels fast, but bad news travels faster!

As an auction seller, (Ebay auction ID: LevelBest77) I would have accommodated her request right away. And while I have never had anyone use “Buy It Now” by accident, I have had several people over the years ask me to retract bids. The number of people who have made that request can be counted on one hand! Some, did not even understand the process, (bid retracting) and I was more than willing to guide them through it.

People make honest mistakes, and you should never “abuse” a buyer for doing so. If you plan to get into Ebay auction selling for the long haul, always practice good will toward your customers. Unless someone is totally unreasonable, and you have done everything in your power to accommodate their request, never deny people the ability to change their mind, return an item, or retract a bid! Developing good will also requires that you anticipate customer needs…..

For instance, I had a few overseas customers bid on a wireless router. This particular item needed to be powered with a Universal Adapter, since voltage requirements in France and Australia are obviously different from those here in the United States.

I made this abundantly clear to both bidders before they sent me any payment. The purchase of such an adapter, not to mention the shipping price, would have doubled the US retail cost. I told them that they could probably get the product cheaper at their local electronics stores. Without hesitation, I let them out of their obligation to pay for the item. I then contacted the next highest bidder and offered that person the chance to make the purchase.

Both bidders thanked me for my honesty. They had forgotten about the electrical differences. I could have ignored that little detail, and sold them the item anyway. I just had to put myself in their situation. Think of how frustrated they would have been if I did not reveal that information. Buyer’s remorse would have set in quickly, once they realized that they could have purchased the same item for a lot less in their native countries.

While the benefits of these actions may not have an immediate effect, you can be sure that should I ever have another “item of interest!” these two gentlemen would not hesitate to purchase from me. They can count on me to accommodate their needs, instead of catering to my wants. Creating this type of good will instills trust, and the knowledge that you have the customers best interest in mind.

“Me thinketh thou doth protest too much!

Do you accentuate the positive? Or, do you run on negativity? Negative Ebay feedback is a tool that everyone should use with restraint, or not at all. As a rule, I never leave negative feedback. Unless someone has blatantly lied about your product, or attacked you personally without merit, then I would not leave any feedback in the “minus” side of the isle!

“Flame” wars are not pretty. I have seen a lot of unnecessary back and forth “banter” that could have been avoided, if they (the seller) just resisted the urge to make their “two cents” known. Sometimes it gives customers the impression that you are more concerned about arguing, then conducting your business.

I have also witnessed seller feedback that has included some pretty foul language. Engaging in this type of verbal sparring is not much of a confidence builder either. It is more telling of what you are, then about revealing the sins of your customers. Don’t go out of your way to register a negative response if you can help it. Heed the sage advice that our Mother’s use to tell us: “If you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all!”

“What we have here is a failure to communicate!”

Communication with your customers should not amount to the sound one hand clapping! Bottom line, if someone e-mails you with a question--answer it! Here is an example of the type of feedback I obtained by doing just that……

“He was very Helpful and cooperative in answering questions. Follow-up: Will DEFINITELY use his services anytime he has items of interest! Great Seller!”

The gentlemen who left this positive review, wanted to know about some of the particulars of a “Mickey Mouse” clock I had up for auction. His wife is a collector of all things Disney, and thought it would be a nice surprise for her birthday. The clock, to say the least, was in sad shape. It was incapable of keeping time, and the only part of it in working order was the second hand. I thought for sure that he would be disappointed with the item despite full disclosure of all of it’s imperfections.

To my surprise, not only did I receive positive feedback, but he also told me that his wife absolutely loved it! In this instance, one man’s junk, truly, is another man’s treasure! I never thought this item was worthy of any praise! The time it took to answer his questions—all of five minutes!

I know that some of you will say that I am not being realistic. You just can’t answer e-mails all day; “I have a business to run!,” you might proclaim. If you plan on making a living on Ebay, then you better think about hiring someone to help you answer your daily inquires if it is just too overwhelming. If you specialize in a particular product, set up a Frequently Asked Questions page to any Auto-Responder.

If you use Ebay on an infrequent basis, and have less than thirty listings a month, then you really don't have any excuse not to provide great customer service and e-mail communication. You shouldn’t be inundated with questions regarding that many items, unless the product you are selling is technical in nature.

If you ignore your customers, they will go away. Good customer service should be woven into the fabric of every good business. I cannot overemphasis the importance of this issue. I continue to be perplexed by the fact that it is last on the list of business priorities for some Ebay sellers!

Will good customer service and communication alone make you rich on Ebay? That would be a resounding "no”. You will have to understand your market, and provide products that the Ebay community will bid on consistently. There will be “bidders & buyers” out there that will make mistakes and commit some auction sins! Forgive all Ebay sins and you will be rewarded with happy, repeat customers!